The Financial Times has an excellent discussion of the IEA, its history, and its recent move to release supply from western reserves. Particularly useful for students is the timeline of IEA actions.
It’s got a nice, clear discussion of the global implications of the move: the desire to avoid inflation being among the more prominent.
In today’s FT, Gavin Davies follows up, where he refers to this very nice paper from Christian Baumeister and Lutz Killian:
Baumeister, C and L Kilian (2011), “Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil”, CEPR DP 8414.